Post-Covid: what might really change?

I suspect very few of us have experienced behavioural changes as dramatic as the ones we are living through.

In the current situation, we may feel bias towards assuming the new normal will be vastly different from our old ways. Not necessarily. Not everyone will want to work from home and I very much doubt we will continue to sing Happy Birthday while washing our hands. But there are some changes that are likely to stick.

 

The disruption Covid-19 has brought does raise an important question - which of these changes will last and which will fade away?

 

It’s a dangerous game to predict what a post-lockdown world will look like, but the investment case for the companies we invest in tends to be tied to deep structural changes or enduring cultural trends. The current shock may have provided some short-term adjustments, but it’s more likely that it will only serve to accelerate the changes we thought were inevitable anyway. 

 

In my recent paper, How the pandemic may change things, I try to address that question and provide some perspective on long-term trends we’re likely to see accelerated. Please take a look and as ever we’d welcome your thoughts.

Dave Bujnowski

Investment manager

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